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Tajikistan’s water policy aims to achieve the priority tasks set by the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan. These tasks include providing the population with high-quality drinking water, ensuring sustainable water supply for economic sectors, particularly agriculture and industry, and developing and maintaining a stable water infrastructure. Additionally, many of Tajikistan’s national goals are closely linked to its international water policy.

Over the past decades, Tajikistan’s international water policy has been formulated through various water initiatives presented by the President of the Republic of Tajikistan at UN platforms and other international organizations. Tajikistan has initiated several international water initiatives and supports the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG No. 6, which focuses on addressing water issues by 2030. The National Development Strategy of Tajikistan for the period up to 2030 also covers sustainable water supply and sanitation for the population, land reclamation and irrigation, and the achievement of SDG No. 6, “Clean Water and Sanitation.”

On December 30, 2015, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan adopted Water Sector Reform No. 791 for the period 2016-2025, under which Basin Organizations were established under the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan (MEWR).

To achieve the set goals, the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is planned. The national features of IWRM in the Republic of Tajikistan include:

  • The importance of hydropower.
  • The significance of water service fees.
  • Prevention of groundwater depletion.
  • The necessity of access to irrigation water.
  • The transition to basin management principles.
  • The need for public participation.
  • Special attention to the vulnerability of mountainous areas and strengthening flood protection.

Basin water resources management, as one of the key principles of IWRM, is carried out within the hydrographic boundaries of river basins and associated groundwater bodies. Tajikistan has designated five basin zones for water resource management:

  1. Syrdarya Basin Zone
  2. Zarafshan Basin Zone
  3. Pyandzh Basin Zone
  4. Vakhsh Basin Zone
  5. Kafirnigan Basin Zone

About the Zarafshan Basin

The Zarafshan Basin Organization is responsible for organizing basin water resources management, planning water resource use, monitoring water use, and implementing the basin water resource management plan in the basin zone.

To promote effective water resource management and coordinate the activities of all stakeholders within the Zarafshan River basin, the Zarafshan River Basin Council has been established. It consists of 35 permanent members, including representatives from authorized state bodies in water resource regulation and protection, local executive government bodies, water users, public associations, and other interested parties.

A key instrument for implementing IWRM principles is the Basin Water Resource Management Plan (BWRMP). The BWRMP reflects an assessment of the current state of water resource formation, use, and protection, the development of water-consuming sectors of the economy in the basin, their water resource needs in the short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, taking into account sustainable development goals. The main objectives of the BWRMP are:

  • Determining the permissible anthropogenic load on water bodies.
  • Identifying future water resource needs.
  • Ensuring water body protection.
  • Defining key measures to prevent negative water impacts.

Characteristics of the Zarafshan River Basin

The Zarafshan Zone is located in central Tajikistan and consists of mountainous terrain between the Turkestan and Zarafshan mountain ranges. The length of the Zarafshan River within Tajikistan is 312 km, with a basin area of 12,512 km². The hydrographic network of the Zarafshan River basin is relatively simple but unevenly distributed, comprising more than 200 small and large tributaries, including 86 that are longer than 10 km and three that exceed 50 km in length. The river network density is 138 m/km². The average annual river discharge is 5 cubic km, accounting for 9% of Tajikistan’s annually renewable river water resources. Glaciers, as natural moisture accumulators, serve as the primary source of the Zarafshan River’s water. There are nine natural lakes in the basin, and no artificial reservoirs exist in the Zarafshan Zone. The total population of the area is 450,000, which represents 4.4% of the country’s total population as of 2024.

Climate

The climate of the Zarafshan River basin belongs to the West Asian (Mediterranean – A) type, with maximum precipitation occurring in winter. Moisture levels are insufficient (III), with an evaporation-to-precipitation ratio ranging from 1 to 3. Summers are warm in the valley and moderately warm in the upper reaches, with a cumulative air temperature above 10°C. Winters range from moderately mild to moderately severe, with average January daily temperatures varying from 0°C to -13°C in the lower basin areas and from -13°C to -32°C in the upper basin areas.

Glaciers

Due to the mountainous nature and elevation of the Zarafshan Basin, a significant number of glaciers exist. The basin contains 1,272 glaciers with a total area of 708.5 km², of which 892 (more than 70%) are smaller than 0.1 km², covering an area of 686.7 km². The total volume of glaciers in the basin is 26 km³.

Climate Change Impact on the Zarafshan River Basin

Climate change significantly affects the Zarafshan River basin, leading to temperature increases in all seasons, glacier and snowfield shrinkage, and intensified extreme natural events. These processes threaten water resources, agriculture, hydraulic structures, and the region’s economy.

  • Glacier Shrinkage and Hazardous Water Formation
    • The main Zarafshan glacier has retreated by 2.5 km over the past 20 years, 2.1 times faster than expected.
    • Reduced glacier and snowfield areas decrease long-term water reserves feeding the river.
    • Melting glaciers form water bodies that may suddenly burst, causing destructive mudflows.
    • These events threaten agriculture, infrastructure, and human lives.
  • Impact on Hydraulic Structures
    • Rapid glacier melting alters the river’s hydrological regime, causing abrupt water level fluctuations.
    • Increased floods threaten pumping stations and headwater intake structures used for irrigation.
    • Riverbank erosion increases the risk of undermining and destroying infrastructure, affecting water supply and irrigation.
    • Irrigated fields along the riverbank face flooding and erosion, leading to crop losses and reduced farmer incomes.
  • Consequences for Agriculture
    • Reduced summer runoff leads to water shortages for irrigation, lowering crop yields.
    • Climate change disrupts traditional planting times: trees bloom in winter, causing spring frost damage to crops.
    • Farmers struggle with yield losses due to mismatched temperature cycles and agricultural schedules.
    • Weakened snow cover in winter degrades soil and reduces its moisture retention capacity.
  • Socioeconomic Risks
    • Agriculture is the primary source of income for local residents, and its decline due to climate change threatens regional economic stability.
    • Increased frequency of floods, mudflows, and droughts creates social risks, including population migration due to deteriorating living conditions.
    • Water resource shortages may lead to competition between different economic sectors.

Adaptation Recommendations

  • Monitoring and Forecasting:
    • Using drones and satellite data to track glacier and snowfield dynamics.
    • Establishing early warning systems for floods and mudflows.
  • Modern Water Conservation Methods:
    • Implementing drip irrigation and water-efficient technologies.
    • Improving irrigation management systems considering climate change conditions.
  • Infrastructure Measures:
    • Strengthening hydraulic structures and riverbanks.
    • Constructing mudflow protection dams and flood diversion channels.
  • Agricultural Support:
    • Developing new agro-technologies and crop varieties resilient to changing conditions.
    • Advising farmers on adapting planting schedules and protecting crops.

Conclusion

Climate change in the Zarafshan River basin poses serious threats to water resources, infrastructure, and the regional economy. Sustainable water resource management, modern monitoring technologies, and agricultural adaptation will help mitigate risks and reduce the impacts of these changes.

Hikmatullo K., Head of Department, Zarafshon River Basin Organization